Recent Publications

Sri Lanka aims to position itself as the primary logistics hub in the Indian Ocean, leveraging its strategic location along major shipping routes. However, achieving this goal depends on substantial foreign investment in port infrastructure. At the same time, the country finds itself at the centre of growing geoeconomic competition between India and China. The implications of smaller nations engaging with two competing powers simultaneously are rarely analysed from their perspective, offering valuable lessons for other South Asian countries facing similar challenges.

Sri Lanka's energy crisis, worsened by its reliance on imported fossil fuels, has pushed the country to prioritize renewable energy, aiming for 70% of its electricity from renewables by 2030. This transition is shaped by economic constraints, geopolitical dynamics, and IMF-imposed reforms. India, facing its own energy security challenges, is emerging as a key partner, with collaboration growing in renewable energy projects and cross-border power transmission initiatives.

China’s growing economic engagement in South Asia is reflected in its increasing development lending, providing an alternative to traditional international financial institutions. This approach has broader implications beyond financial support, shaping political decision-making, media landscapes, and civil society dynamics. Examples include Bangladesh’s USD 24 billion in loans for infrastructure projects and the USD 1.4 billion China-Maldives Friendship Bridge. Using Sri Lanka and Bhutan as case studies, this commentary examines how Bhutan’s evolving relationship with China parallels Sri Lanka’s earlier experiences and explores key takeaways for Bhutan.

Nepal’s growing food insecurity, fuelled by climate change and a struggling agricultural sector, is reshaping its geopolitical ties with India and China. Despite implementing various policies to address these challenges, gaps in execution leave the country heavily reliant on imports, particularly from its neighbours. India and China play pivotal roles in supporting Nepal’s agricultural resilience through investments, technology, and infrastructure, underscoring the delicate balance Nepal must maintain amidst regional competition.

Nepal’s transition from Least Developed Country (LDC) to Middle-Income Country (MIC) in November 2024 is a landmark achievement, signalling its socio-economic progress. However, this shift presents challenges such as reduced access to ODA, trade preference erosion, and financial constraints. To navigate this transition, Nepal must strengthen regional cooperation, particularly with India and China, while exploring South-South partnerships and innovative financing strategies. Balancing its geopolitical position and prioritising national interests will be key to ensuring sustainable growth and leveraging new opportunities post-graduation.

This case study examines how Sri Lanka’s energy security challenges are reshaping geopolitics in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), focusing on the country’s efforts to transition to renewable energy amid economic constraints. With its reliance on energy imports and growing demand, Sri Lanka faces complex diplomatic choices, balancing partnerships with regional powers like India and China to secure investments. The study explores opportunities for transnational energy collaboration, particularly with India, to boost clean energy infrastructure and position Sri Lanka as a leader in sustainable development for island nations facing climate risks.

In the Bay of Bengal, small-scale fishers face a tough reality, frequently arrested by neighboring coast guards for drifting across borders, often unknowingly. Despite protections under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), local laws and geopolitical conflicts create barriers for these fishers, especially in Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. Harsh penalties, detentions, and dangerous working conditions contribute to the vulnerabilities of these communities, trapped between survival needs and restrictive regulations. Collaborative regional efforts, aligned with international maritime laws, are essential to support small-scale fishers’ rights and safety.

South Asia’s climate vulnerabilities—floods, droughts, food insecurity, and displacement—heighten regional tensions and destabilize resources. With 750 million people affected by climate disasters in the past two decades, competition over resources like the Indus and Ganges rivers intensifies, as water-sharing disputes intersect with political divides. Transboundary challenges, such as India-Pakistan and India-Nepal tensions, underscore the risks of limited cooperation. Rising climate migration adds pressure, with the region needing urgent, cohesive responses. Yet, geopolitical rivalry often hinders unified climate action, risking conflict over vital resources.

The importance of energy security in Sri Lanka focuses on the island’s untapped potential in renewable energy and its strategic position as a future energy hub. As Sri Lanka continues to face economic and energy challenges, India has stepped up its support with key projects—ranging from solar and wind power initiatives to joint ventures in the vital port city of Trincomalee. With plans for power grid integration and expanding energy cooperation, this growing partnership could transform Sri Lanka’s energy landscape and help the nation achieve long-term sustainability and economic stability.

The maritime dispute between India and Sri Lanka in the Palk Bay has longstanding historical roots and remains a critical issue due to its impact on local fishing communities and regional stability. With geopolitical dynamics at play, resolving the issue is vital for maintaining peace, ensuring livelihoods, and fostering cooperation between the two countries. A sustainable, collaborative approach to fisheries management could help address these challenges.

The Teesta River plays a vital role in the socio-economic fabric of Bangladesh. The article delves into the intricate dynamics of the Teesta River dispute in South Asia showcasing the enmeshment of domestic politics, bilateral relations and regional geopolitics in the context of transboundary water disputes. It emphasizes the critical role India plays in both Indo-Bangladesh bilateral ties and the overarching stability of the region.

Bangladesh is in dire need to expand international cooperation in its energy sector. Exploring the drivers of recently increased India-Bangladesh energy collaboration, the article delves into India's paradoxical role as an energy provider to Bangladesh despite its own energy security challenges. This strategic partnership highlights Bangladesh's growing geopolitical significance for India and aligns with the broader context of South Asia's increasing geo-politicization amidst the resurgence of great power rivalry in international politics.