The Northern Indian Ocean region exemplifies India’s increased maritime posture and strategic investment spanning traditional and non-traditional security areas [1]. Rising sea surface temperatures, the increasing incidence of natural disasters, fishermen straying beyond EEZs, climate change-induced food insecurity, and the lack of regional mechanisms amid growing geopolitical tussles between traditional and new players in the Indian Ocean region are all contributing to worsening security issues. This article will address how a combination of factors—including climate change, overfishing, and coral reef destruction in the Northern Indian Ocean—has had devastating effects on fishermen’s livelihoods, led to ecosystem breakdowns, and exacerbated conflicts among contending South Asian countries in the region. The article will build on the issue of shared waters, particularly in the context of the fishing industry, and will extend the analysis to the whole of South Asia, with a closer look at climate change-induced food insecurity. Additionally, it will situate this within contemporary and emergent security challenges—particularly around maritime governance, and sustainable ocean-based development—and address the lack of a framework for regional cooperation.

Introduction

An essential element impacting the health of the blue economy in the Northern Indian Ocean is maritime security in both its traditional and non-traditional senses. This piece explores the importance and meaning of maritime security for the Northern Indian Ocean and situates it within the India- Sri Lanka relationship and its implications for larger regional cooperation in maritime security. Specifically, over the past five decades, the region has been shaped by a range of security challenges, which have been further exacerbated by climate change, overfishing, and coral reef destruction, all of which have had steeply negative impacts on the livelihoods of fishermen and the survival of ecosystems in the region [2]. These conditions have, in turn, exacerbated conflicts among contending South Asian countries against the backdrop of weak regional cooperation frameworks. For India, a major player and preferred security provider in the region, recent developments in traditional and non-traditional security paradigms in the region are critical determinants of its external and regional cooperation mechanisms. Understanding the roots of geopolitical instability in the Northern Indian Ocean is therefore crucial—not only for assessing India’s strategic calculus, but also for evaluating the broader regional security landscape. The drivers of geopolitical instability are diverse and overlapping, often reinforcing one another in ways that complicate effective cooperation on a host of issues including blue economy and long-term stability in the region.

Factors Aggravating Geopolitical Instability in Northern Indian Ocean Region

While there are significant geopolitical challenges and potential spaces of cooperation and collaboration on the horizon, bilateral relations between India and Sri Lanka are currently on an uncertain path. Within the Indo-Pacific, the Northern Indian Ocean region is now increasingly the focal point of a significant geopolitical powerplay between India and China, with Sri Lanka in the middle [3]. These evolving power dynamics present new complexities for the region as opposed to traditional maritime security challenges such as piracy, smuggling, and trafficking. China’s rising economic and military presence in strategic locations such as the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka through BRI programs has provided it with a strong foothold in the region. On the other hand, its “debt-trap” [4] diplomacy and its eventual economic repercussions on the Sri Lankan economy in 2022 allowed India to maintain its relevance through economic support and aid to Sri Lanka. This is important, as India has not been able to go head-to-head with China in terms of infrastructure development in Sri Lanka.

In turn, India has sought stronger security partnerships with major players in the larger Indo-Pacific region, including the US and Japan, to reinforce its naval presence and influence. Additionally, beyond the littoral states, security in the region is paramount for extra-regional and global powers owing to its strategic importance in connecting maritime routes and chokepoints that ensure the safe passage of oil and goods between Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Factors destabilising the region could threaten global supply chains, energy security, and trade.

Climate Change and Degradation of Marine Ecosystems in Northern Indian Ocean Region

Among the major non-traditional security challenges in the Northern Indian Ocean region, urgent attention must be paid to climate change, environmental degradation, food insecurity, declining fisheries, and shrinking livelihood options in order to work toward effective maritime governance and sustainable ocean-based development. One of the most contentious issues in bilateral exchanges between India and Sri Lanka is the fishermen issue, which also reflects broader food insecurities in the region, many of which are being worsened by climate change.

Climate change and environmental degradation are increasingly contributing to instability in the region. Rising sea surface temperatures are among the most pressing concerns, with far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems [5]. Warmer waters are causing widespread coral bleaching, leading to the destruction of vital coral reefs that serve as nurseries for marine biodiversity. The loss of coral reefs not only threatens fish populations but also disrupts the broader marine food chain, carrying significant economic implications for coastal communities that rely on fishing for their livelihoods [6].

Additionally, the Northern Indian Ocean is highly susceptible to climate change-induced natural disasters, such as cyclones, flooding, and rising sea levels. These events are becoming more frequent and severe, threatening coastal infrastructure, displacing populations, and causing widespread damage to agriculture and fisheries [7]. Saltwater intrusion and the resulting loss of arable land are further undermining food security in the region [8]. Environmental degradation is likewise intensifying social and economic pressures, particularly for fishing communities [9]. Overfishing, combined with the destruction of marine habitats, is depleting fish stocks, reducing incomes, and increasing competition over dwindling resources [10]. This not only destabilises local economies but also fuels regional tensions as countries struggle to assert control over shared marine resources.

Consequences for Blue Economy in the Region

The Blue Economy holds significant value for the South Asian region, offering opportunities for sustainable growth, trade, and livelihoods. Coastal resources, however, are under extreme strain from climate change, overexploitation, and improper governance. These pressures are creating profound socio-economic challenges for millions who depend on it. From the decline of fisheries that sustain coastal communities to the growing risk of food insecurity driven by environmental degradation, the consequences of mismanaging the Blue Economy are becoming increasingly visible.

a) Fisheries and Livelihoods in Decline

Overfishing and the depletion of marine resources are severely impacting the socio-economic fabric of South Asian countries, particularly those bordering the Northern Indian Ocean. In many of these nations, coastal communities rely heavily on fishing for their livelihoods [11]. As fish stocks dwindle, however, fishermen are increasingly straying beyond their countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in search of better catch [12]. This has led to growing tensions between neighbouring countries, with the India-Sri Lanka bilateral issue being a notable example. Indian fishermen, driven by declining resources in their waters, often cross into Sri Lankan EEZs, leading to diplomatic friction and even violent confrontations [13].

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is further compounding the problem. Unscrupulous fishing practices, including the use of banned gear and unlicensed vessels, are depleting fish stocks at unsustainable rates. IUU fishing undermines legal fisheries management efforts, disrupts marine ecosystems, and reduces the economic opportunities available to legitimate fishermen. It also erodes trust between countries and creates obstacles for effective regional cooperation in managing shared marine resources [14].

The socio-economic consequences of overfishing are profound. As fish stocks diminish, food security is jeopardised, particularly in countries such as Sri Lanka, India, and Bangladesh where fish are a staple source of protein. The depletion of marine resources also exacerbates regional conflicts, as competition intensifies over dwindling fish populations [15]. In the absence of robust fisheries management and regional cooperation, overfishing threatens not only livelihoods but also long-term stability in the region. Sustainable practices and collective action are urgently needed to reverse this decline and ensure a stable future for South Asian fisheries.

b) Rising Food Insecurity

Climate change is increasingly linked to food insecurity in South Asia, with rising sea levels and declining fish stocks posing significant threats to the region. Coastal agriculture is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, as saltwater intrusion contaminates arable land, reducing crop yields. In countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where large populations depend on coastal farming, this disruption threatens livelihoods and food production. The loss of fertile land forces farmers to abandon traditional agricultural practices, leading to economic displacement and a rise in food scarcity [16].

The decline in fish stocks, driven by overfishing and warming sea temperatures, further exacerbates food insecurity. In India and Sri Lanka, fish serve as a critical source of protein for millions [17]. As marine ecosystems are damaged by climate change and environmental degradation, fish populations have plummeted, reducing the availability of affordable seafood. This has a cascading effect on nutrition, particularly for low-income coastal communities that rely heavily on the ocean for sustenance.

Policy Suggestions for a Regional Blue Economy Framework

Despite the presence of initiatives such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), there is a notable lack of regional mechanisms to address non-traditional security issues even as they escalate rapidly in the region due to geopolitical instability. With respect to mechanisms currently in place to address these issues, the regional frameworks, including IORA and Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI), are thoroughly inadequate, particularly due to their largely consultative nature, lack of binding commitments, fragmented coordination, and a predominant focus on traditional state security.

These frameworks often neglect the critical climate-security nexus, overlooking how environmental degradation and resource depletion threaten regional stability and livelihoods. To fill this gap, a reformed regional approach must prioritise capacity-building for littoral states, equipping them with technical training, surveillance infrastructure, and logistical support. Strengthening regional research and data-sharing networks is essential to enable real-time monitoring of marine biodiversity, fisheries, and climate impacts, fostering trust and evidence-based policies.

Moreover, binding incentives and accountability mechanisms should be introduced to ensure adherence to international environmental standards, such as linking compliance to access benefits or aid. Sustainable marine management must be institutionalised through agreements on resource quotas and community-led initiatives. Finally, establishing a dedicated body to systematically monitor ecosystem changes will improve climate resilience. Such a comprehensive, inclusive framework will enable cooperative governance that benefits all littoral states and provides stability even amongst rising geopolitical competition in the region.

Conclusion

Among the major players in the region, including India, Sri Lanka, and China, geopolitical competition and debt diplomacy have long undermined cooperative regionalism. As non-traditional security threats intensify, the region’s existing mechanisms have indeed proven inadequate, notably because frameworks (such as IPOI) often remain consultative and fragmented, with limited operational and institutional capacity to address cross-border environmental and livelihood threats.

The way forward is to initiate a reoriented regional framework treating climate and ecological degradation as core security concerns; establishing robust institutional mechanisms for data-sharing, joint surveillance, and ecosystem monitoring; and linking capacity-building and technical assistance that adheres to international norms. Regional platforms must also prioritise the interests of smaller littoral states and their communities to ensure equity and build resilience and trust for long-term cooperation. Without such transformation, instability in the Northern Indian Ocean will remain chronic and increasingly unmanageable.